šŸŽ° Google Update May Take Aim at Betting Affiliates

Also: Raising Stake is now Herd Cap

Raising Stake is now HERD CAP. Last year, you subscribed to receive Kyle Scott and Jason Ziernickiā€™s newsletter on the intersection of sports, media, and gambling. After a brief(?) hiatus, weā€™re back with weekly commentary on the space through our jointly owned investment and consulting company, Herd Capital. Same content, new name. These cartoonish facesā€¦

ā€¦ are now represented by an absolutely absurd, needlessly aggressive RED BULL, with a crown and a gold diamond-studded chain:

why so angry?

He doesnā€™t have a name yet. Thanks for asking.

On to the šŸ”„ contentā€¦

šŸ”¦ Google Coming For Betting Affiliates?

Most of you probably donā€™t get lost in the weeds of Google algorithmic updates. We certainly prefer not to (find there are a lot of ticks and vermin in there). But invariably, one of those updates will impact or, worse, take aim at your industry.

This is one of those times.

In addition to countless other updates Google has made over the past year which have impacted affiliate websites, the search giant says it will roll out its parasite content update sometime this month.

šŸž What is parasite content? Itā€™s when marketers and affiliates leverage the power of high-ranking websites - think newspapers and other legacy media companies - to create promotional and affiliate content that is unrelated to what that website usually writes about. If done right, this sort of content partnership is a ticket to the top of the search results.

In no other industry has this tactic been more effective in recent years than online gambling.

Hereā€™s how it works:

1) Large affiliate companies partner with major newspaper brandsā€” think Gambling.com and Better Collective striking partnerships with the Miami Herald and NY Post.

2) The affiliates create advertorial content for high-value search terms like ā€œbest online sportsbookā€ or ā€œDraftKings promo codeā€.

Examples:

3) The content ranks at or near the top of Google for these searches, often outranking industry-specific sites that may contain better information but have less ā€œsearch juiceā€ in the eyes of Google.

4) Profit.

This practice is replicated across various topics, like finance, travel, and for other legal and illegal vices.

But it now has the attention of Google.

Opinions of course vary as to how well Google can ā€œcorrect" this because many of the sites that might be targeted are rightfully respected and should rank highly for many topics, including gambling content.

Traditionally, when it comes to gambling, this tactic has been used by offshore operations to promote illegal gambling on otherwise legitimate sites. Itā€™s still happening, btw:

But regulated gambling is another matter. For example, the NY Post covering the industry or DraftKingsā€™ earnings is very legitimate.

Google will use a mix of automatic and manual actions to combat content that shows up in unexpected places (like the screenshot in this email showing Yaleā€™s website promoting travel insurance). The company says it wonā€™t bother with advertorial or sponsored content where users might expect to view said content, but rather it will focus on affiliate content where itā€™s clearly outside the expectation of regular visitors to that website šŸ˜¬.

Indeed, just today, we see impacts to legacy media brands on search terms for very mainstream promo codes:

Will, say, a ranking of best legal online casinos on USA Today, Sports Illustrated, and Oregon Live being considered ā€œparasite contentā€ by Google? We might soon find out.

ā€¼ļø Problem Spots

There are a few potential problems from all stakeholders in online sports betting:

1) Affiliate referrals

Weā€™d wager that a significant portion of affiliate referrals to sportsbooks come through these marketing partnerships. If Googleā€™s algorithm update impacts the rankings, it will disrupt this process significantly.

  • The most likely to suffer are the legacy media companies themselves which have made tens if not hundreds of millions in aggregate over the last five years through these partnerships.

  • Larger affiliates - the partners of the media brands - may or may not be impacted as harshly. If the search results replace a legacy or ā€œparasiteā€ result with an industry-specific site that they own, then this would be a net positive.

  • Sportsbooks and betting operators may be the least negatively impacted because many of these search results are for their brand to begin with. If Google gets better about prioritizing, say, DraftKingsā€™ website on a ā€œDraftKingsā€ search, then DraftKings will save on a $150-$300 affiliate referral.

2) Google News

One very obvious way in which affiliates leverage large media brands are through their inclusion in Google News results, which can often sit atop regular results:

This has led to an arms race of recurring, often repetitive content that Google probably wants to devalue.

If Google were to manually remove ā€œNewsā€ results from gambling-related terms and target ā€œparasiteā€ longer form content in the space, it could compound the impact.

šŸ—½ Opportunities

A large portion of affiliate referrals today come through search.

BUT WE THINK THIS WILL CHANGE SOON.

Whether because of Google updates or operators determining that these sorts of referrals are not that efficient, we believe youā€™ll see a big shift toward ā€œinfluencersā€ and YouTubers who can continuously engage bettors from initial signup and then on an ongoing basis, starting this football season.

Historically itā€™s been harder to track conversions from social and video affiliates than from websites, but thatā€™s where the attention is, and there are some tools and processes to help tracking.

Of course, given much of the negative publicity in the gambling industry over the last six months or so, gambling regulators, operators, and marketers all need to take much more care in how gambling is marketed to consumers, especially when working with influencers who may be a bit more, um, free with their language.

ā€œ77% of sportsbook marketing content broke one or more state-based marketing guidelinesā€

That means a greater focus on compliance on state marketing regulations and guidelines currently in place (our recent research showed that 77% of a random sampling of marketing partner content broke one or more marketing guidelinesā€¦ in just one stateā€” more on that in a future email) and future guidelines aimed at combating problem gambling. States and operators will need to ensure all marketing copy is safe, effective, and compliant.

We consult in this area at Herd Cap.

Whether youā€™re a state seeking to better police the endless firehose of marketing content, an operator needing to audit your partners, or looking to train your content team, we can help.

Herd Compliance leverages AI trained on state gaming regulations to create detailed audits of gambling marketing content. Weā€™re also able to certify and flag problematic content before it goes out.

If your state or organization needs some help thereā€” drop us a line by responding to this email.

Weā€™ll be at SBC North America this week. Happy to connect.