📰 Google AI's Impact on Media and Affiliates

I have big thoughts here, as it relates to affiliates, media in general, and how humans use the internet.

I’ll start with the former two: People who run websites - affiliate, media, or otherwise - just presume that Google will always be there because it’s been such a steady source of acquisition. But it is not a god given right. It will still work for some, for sure, but even if Google as we know it as a source of visitors goes away, it doesn’t mean you can’t have a functioning website or affiliate business.

This happens all the time. Google changes something and people freak out, BUT this time is different. Google has legit competition for the first time in 25 years. The fragmentation of search is upon us and frankly, everyone will win….Google, Open Ai, Perplexity Ai, and the consumer = winners!

Google wins because it will force the hands of companies to pay massively (through ads) for something they can not afford to lose. The AI companies win by simply gaining a foothold in the search vertical. The consumer ultimately wins as they now have options.

I’ll take it a step further: I’m not even sure it’s about “search.”

Search used to mean curation of the web, which Google did well— still does. But our web use has evolved well past just this simple framework. For starters, we probably use Google now more to get answers or do complex tasks (like book a trip) than to “search the directory of the Internet.” It turns out AI is (pretty) good at giving answers to simples queries, and it will eventually be able to perform complex tasks. And so because AI use (ChatGPT) replaced huge use cases for Google, it must now be in the AI business. This means pissing all over large-swaths of its directory business— the list of blue links. It will redefine how its core product works. But this is really inconvenient for publishers and media brands who existed solely to placate the Google algorithm. I don’t think publishers or users are ready for the large, rapid user behavior change that is about to take place.

Agreed. A paradigm shift is afoot. Tasks will be replaced and completed by AI, but the ability to compete in the marketplace will increase rapidly. The CORE ISSUE is that the market place will be redefined and most people do not have comfort it what that will look like, including myself.

Google will be fine because it plans to fit contextual ads into AI results. This could work really well, and present an opportunity for marketers. But what happens when the default method of “searching” isn’t visiting Google but rather just speaking your query into, say, an iPhone with an enhanced Siri powered by OpenAI?

Back when we were responsible for referring 1/3 of all sports bettors on the opening weekend of sports betting in NY, I told you this amazing growth was great, but if states copy the tax rate of NY, things will get F#*ked real fast.

Unfortunately, the greed is taking over. At some point, the number of books will dwindle to 2-3 at best in these max tax states and the BIG WINNER will be the off-shore folks.

There was a time when a substantial number of NY bettors signed up for an app using one of our links. It’s a shame we like money so much because it would have been a great opportunity to Rick Roll half of the 25-54 male demo in the Big Apple.

You can only tax an industry so far. NY got away with it because it, at the time and still, presented the most scale for sports betting operators and launched at the very tail end of the Everything Bubble™… 4 weeks before the Super Bowl. To your point, operators don’t need Mass or any state, save for a future FL-TX-CA, that much and can simply take their ball and go home or stop focusing on growth in the state.

If I were DraftKings or FanDuel, slow-playing i-gaming may be a strategy to consider. The current environment is toxic. Sports betting was seen as a savior for state government budgets, so they pushed it through quickly. Everyone knows the power of casino revenue and the states are like a butcher just waiting to take a cut….a rather large cut, like Kobe beef with a fine chianti.

Some version of this article was everywhere today. Talk about an embargo.

Full barbarians at the gate here. In short, college athletic departments need money and they are largely tapped out on credit and donations, so now we have BIG MONEY™ offering Big Money to colleges for rights to future revenue. WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

Most people are just learning that the college football landscape is about to split into three tiers. The bottom tier will hold on for dear life, but sadly will die off. The middle tier is where PE money will shine.

A concerning note here is that football is being viewed as the only way to subsidize collegiate athletic departments. As I get older, the appreciation for people to compete in all sports has grown immensely. This entire model appears to pretend that football and the free choice to spend the investment will save the day…..I just can not see that being the case.

My favorite part of this is the money invested, ~$50 million-$200 million per school, can be used by the school however they see fit, because it’s not in exchange for equity but more like a loan. Surely athletic department administrators will spend this money efficiently! That is a trough I would love to feed at. If you can’t get a government contract, this may be the next best thing. Which reminds me: are there any D1 colleges out there in need of media and digital advising? We charge… $5,000 per hour for…a… um, 10,000 hours of work. Eat that, Malcolm Gladwell.

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